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Cyber Command. Few expected to see a push to resolve it now. Strategic Command. The assumption in the early days was that, of course, one day Cyber Command and the NSA would separate. The idea all along had been to incubate Cyber Command, not to develop a novel hybrid model that would be sustained indefinitely. After all, few at the time anticipated that the intertwined institutional relationship might actually be optimal for a world like ours today, in which great power competition manifests in the form of constant adversarial cyber-domain activity below the level of armed conflict with the lines separating espionage, covert action, and military activity much less apparent than in conventional physical spaces.

Most observers assumed that Cyber Command eventually would break off on its own, once it developed sufficient personnel, accesses, and other operational capabilities of its own and capacities to replenish these things on a sustained basis. Congress ultimately intervened, with members of the Senate and House Armed Services in particular concerned that a precipitous separation might leave us with a Cyber Command not quite ready for prime time.

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Accordingly, in lateCongress used the National Defense Authorization Act process to impose benchmarks on the separation decision, ones that both the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the t Chiefs of Staff must certify have been met before separation lawfully can occur. Then, in lateSection of the NDAA FY20 tightened the aforementioned list of required certifications by altering the terms of items iii and vias follows:.

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I Execution of national-level missions through cyberspace, including deterrence and disruption of adversary cyber activity. III Support for other combatant commands, including targeting of adversary military assets. Those are the rules that govern today.

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A few hours later, Katie Bo Williams reported for Defense One that Acting Secretary Miller himself has not yet formally approved the proposal which presumably means he has not actually ed the requisite certifications but almost certainly will do so. At any rate, all agree that the only question now is whether General Milley will cooperate in issuing the aforementioned certifications.

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What else can I read to understand the pros and cons of separation? You might also check out this analysis from James Di Pane at Heritage. There are many others. For now, let me sum up the stakes in very general terms. Arguments against separation emphasize the idea that it is optimal to have an institutionally-integrated ability to toggle between Title 10 military and Title 50 intelligence authorities; that having the dual-hat commander with a full commitment to both organizations guarantees the existence of a deconfliction process; and that Cyber Command might yet be too limited in its independent capabilities to justify formal separation at this point.

Could a separation decision be unwound without undue costs? Probably so.

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There is not much time left on the calendar before the Inauguration. The Biden administration likely could suspend implementation of a separation order before much of consequence has occurred, should it be so inclined. Gen Paul M. Then, in lateSection of the NDAA FY20 tightened the aforementioned list of required certifications by altering the terms of items iii and vias follows: iii The tools, weapons, and accesses used in and available for military cyber operations are sufficient for achieving required effects and United States Cyber Command is capable of acquiring or developing such tools, weapons, and accesses; … vi The cyber mission force has achieved full operational capability and has demonstrated the capacity to execute the cyber missions of the Department, including the following: I Execution of national-level missions through cyberspace, including deterrence and disruption of adversary cyber activity; II Defense of the Department of Defense Information Network; and III Support for other combatant commands, including targeting of adversary military assets.

So, have those certifications been issued? No, not yet. Stay tuned.

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Pentagon mulling split of NSA, Cyber Command